Pardubice 1–0 Hradec Králové: Result & Stats

Pardubice

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Hradec Králové

12/7/2025

Czech Liga · Round 18Stadion Arnosta Kostala

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Pardubice39%

×Draw27%

Hradec Králové34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PardubiceExpected goals in this matchHradec Králové

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.18

Pardubice

1.27

Hradec Králové

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 103 home / 88 away

1.16

creates per match

1.09

1.27

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Pardubice

1.16

Hradec Králové

1.09

allows per match

Pardubice

1.27

Hradec Králové

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pardubice+0.00on par

Hradec Králové+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pardubice ↓

Hradec Králové →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Pardubice or draw

66%

Pardubice or Hradec Králové

73%

Draw or Hradec Králové

61%

Winning margin

Pardubice wins by 2+

17%

Hradec Králové wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Pardubice 1+ goals

72%

Pardubice 2+ goals

36%

Pardubice 3+ goals

14%

Hradec Králové 1+ goals

69%

Hradec Králové 2+ goals

33%

Hradec Králové 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Pardubice (draw refunded)

53%

Hradec Králové (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pardubice at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.27 · 103 matches

Hradec Králové away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.39 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pardubice attack 1.16 + Hradec Králové defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.27

Hradec Králové attack 1.09 + Pardubice defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Pardubice scores more

39%

level

27%

Hradec Králové scores more

34%

Pardubice at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Pardubice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff