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Pardubice vs Artis — FNL 2019

Pardubice
Pardubice
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Artis
Artis
9/28/2019FNLFNL · Round 10Stadion K Vinici

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Pardubice58%
×Draw24%
Artis19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pardubice
1.74
Artis
0.88

Pardubice creates 98% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 103 away

creates per match

Pardubice
2.27
Artis
1.28

allows per match

Pardubice
0.47
Artis
1.21

finishing

Pardubice+0.00on par
Artis+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pardubice ↓

Artis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Pardubice or draw
81%
Pardubice or Artis
76%
Draw or Artis
42%

Winning margin

Pardubice wins by 2+
32%
Artis wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Pardubice 1+ goals
82%
Pardubice 2+ goals
52%
Pardubice 3+ goals
25%
Artis 1+ goals
59%
Artis 2+ goals
22%
Artis 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Pardubice (draw refunded)
75%
Artis (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pardubice at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.47 · 15 matches

Artis away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.21 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pardubice attack 2.27 + Artis defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.74

Artis attack 1.28 + Pardubice defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Pardubice scores more
58%
level
24%
Artis scores more
19%

Pardubice at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Pardubice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FNL: Pardubice 2–0 Artis

Pardubice beat Artis 2-0 in FNL on September 28, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion K Vinici in Pardubice.