Pardubice U19 0–3 Jablonec U19: Result & Stats

Pardubice U19

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Jablonec U19

M. Vopat 83', 34'

P. Kucera 24'

6/7/2025

1. Liga U19 · Round 29Stadion K Vinici

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Pardubice U1955%

×Draw21%

Jablonec U1924%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pardubice U19Expected goals in this matchJablonec U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.27

Pardubice U19

2.04

Jablonec U19

1.27

Pardubice U19 creates 61% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 15 away

1.80

creates per match

1.20

1.35

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

Pardubice U19

1.80

Jablonec U19

1.20

allows per match

Pardubice U19

1.35

Jablonec U19

2.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pardubice U19+0.00on par

Jablonec U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pardubice U19 ↓

Jablonec U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Pardubice U19 or draw

76%

Pardubice U19 or Jablonec U19

79%

Draw or Jablonec U19

45%

Winning margin

Pardubice U19 wins by 2+

33%

Jablonec U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Pardubice U19 1+ goals

87%

Pardubice U19 2+ goals

60%

Pardubice U19 3+ goals

33%

Jablonec U19 1+ goals

72%

Jablonec U19 2+ goals

36%

Jablonec U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Pardubice U19 (draw refunded)

70%

Jablonec U19 (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pardubice U19 at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.35 · 79 matches

Jablonec U19 away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pardubice U19 attack 1.80 + Jablonec U19 defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.04

Jablonec U19 attack 1.20 + Pardubice U19 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Pardubice U19 scores more

55%

level

21%

Jablonec U19 scores more

24%

Pardubice U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Pardubice U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

R. Lorenc

24'

P. Kucera

34'

M. Vopat

46'

J. Jun← J. Jun

56'

K. Hudak← K. Hudak

67'

J. Zima← J. Zima

68'

L. Svatos← L. Svatos

71'

F. Sirucek← F. Sirucek

73'

J. Svaton← J. Svaton

77'

K. Hudak

83'

M. Vopat

84'

V. Pancev← V. Pancev

84'

←

88'

V. Pancev

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff