Pardubice U19 2–0 Hradec Králové U19

Pardubice U19

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Hradec Králové U19

10/14/2022

1. Liga U19 · Round 11Ohrazenice UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Pardubice U1950%

×Draw22%

Hradec Králové U1928%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pardubice U19Expected goals in this matchHradec Králové U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.40

Pardubice U19

1.93

Hradec Králové U19

1.40

Pardubice U19 creates 38% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 48 away

1.80

creates per match

1.44

1.35

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Pardubice U19

1.80

Hradec Králové U19

1.44

allows per match

Pardubice U19

1.35

Hradec Králové U19

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pardubice U19+0.00on par

Hradec Králové U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pardubice U19 ↓

Hradec Králové U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Pardubice U19 or draw

72%

Pardubice U19 or Hradec Králové U19

78%

Draw or Hradec Králové U19

50%

Winning margin

Pardubice U19 wins by 2+

28%

Hradec Králové U19 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Pardubice U19 1+ goals

85%

Pardubice U19 2+ goals

57%

Pardubice U19 3+ goals

30%

Hradec Králové U19 1+ goals

75%

Hradec Králové U19 2+ goals

41%

Hradec Králové U19 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Pardubice U19 (draw refunded)

64%

Hradec Králové U19 (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pardubice U19 at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.35 · 79 matches

Hradec Králové U19 away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.06 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pardubice U19 attack 1.80 + Hradec Králové U19 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.93

Hradec Králové U19 attack 1.44 + Pardubice U19 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Pardubice U19 scores more

50%

level

22%

Hradec Králové U19 scores more

28%

Pardubice U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Pardubice U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff