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Paranavaí vs PSTC Procopense — Paranaense - 2 2025

Paranavaí
Paranavaí
FT
3 – 1
PSTC Procopense
PSTC Procopense
6/7/2025Paranaense - 2Paranaense - 2 · 1st Phase - 9Estádio Municipal Dr. Waldemiro Wagner

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Paranavaí55%
×Draw26%
PSTC Procopense19%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paranavaí
1.50
PSTC Procopense
0.77

Paranavaí creates 95% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 6 away

creates per match

Paranavaí
1.33
PSTC Procopense
0.67

allows per match

Paranavaí
0.87
PSTC Procopense
1.67

finishing

Paranavaí+0.00on par
PSTC Procopense+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paranavaí ↓

PSTC Procopense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Paranavaí or draw
81%
Paranavaí or PSTC Procopense
74%
Draw or PSTC Procopense
45%

Winning margin

Paranavaí wins by 2+
28%
PSTC Procopense wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Paranavaí 1+ goals
78%
Paranavaí 2+ goals
44%
Paranavaí 3+ goals
19%
PSTC Procopense 1+ goals
54%
PSTC Procopense 2+ goals
18%
PSTC Procopense 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Paranavaí (draw refunded)
74%
PSTC Procopense (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paranavaí at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

PSTC Procopense away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paranavaí attack 1.33 + PSTC Procopense defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

PSTC Procopense attack 0.67 + Paranavaí defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Paranavaí scores more
55%
level
26%
PSTC Procopense scores more
19%

Paranavaí at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Paranavaí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paranaense - 2: Paranavaí 3–1 PSTC Procopense

Paranavaí beat PSTC Procopense 3-1 in Paranaense - 2 on June 7, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Dr. Waldemiro Wagner in Paranavaí, Paraná.