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Paranavaí vs Aruko Sports — Paranaense - 2 2025

Paranavaí
Paranavaí
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Aruko Sports
Aruko Sports
Luizao 23' (OG)
4/27/2025Paranaense - 2Paranaense - 2 · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Municipal Dr. Waldemiro Wagner

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Paranavaí33%
×Draw27%
Aruko Sports40%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paranavaí
1.15
Aruko Sports
1.29

Aruko Sports creates 12% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 10 away

creates per match

Paranavaí
1.50
Aruko Sports
1.70

allows per match

Paranavaí
0.88
Aruko Sports
0.80

finishing

Paranavaí+0.00on par
Aruko Sports+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paranavaí ↓

Aruko Sports →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Paranavaí or draw
60%
Paranavaí or Aruko Sports
73%
Draw or Aruko Sports
67%

Winning margin

Paranavaí wins by 2+
13%
Aruko Sports wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Paranavaí 1+ goals
68%
Paranavaí 2+ goals
32%
Paranavaí 3+ goals
11%
Aruko Sports 1+ goals
72%
Aruko Sports 2+ goals
37%
Aruko Sports 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Paranavaí (draw refunded)
45%
Aruko Sports (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paranavaí at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

Aruko Sports away — creates 1.70, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paranavaí attack 1.50 + Aruko Sports defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.15

Aruko Sports attack 1.70 + Paranavaí defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Paranavaí scores more
33%
level
27%
Aruko Sports scores more
40%

Aruko Sports at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Aruko Sports will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
LuizaoOwn goal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paranaense - 2: Paranavaí 0–1 Aruko Sports

Aruko Sports beat Paranavaí 1-0 in Paranaense - 2 on April 27, 2025.

Goals: Luizao (23' o.g.).

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Dr. Waldemiro Wagner in Paranavaí, Paraná.