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Parana vs Grêmio Maringá — Paranaense - 2 2020

Parana
Parana
FT
6 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Grêmio Maringá
Grêmio Maringá
Ravanelli 84'
Cristiano 69' (pen), 23', 7'
J. Schuttz 57'
Eliandro 40'
Murilo 86'
Gelton Francisco 39'
6/21/2024Paranaense - 2Paranaense - 2 · 1st Phase - 8Estádio Durival de Britto e Silva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Parana77%
×Draw16%
Grêmio Maringá8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Parana
2.38
Grêmio Maringá
0.61

Parana creates 290% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 10 away

creates per match

Parana
2.16
Grêmio Maringá
0.70

allows per match

Parana
0.53
Grêmio Maringá
2.60

finishing

Parana+0.00on par
Grêmio Maringá+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Parana ↓

Grêmio Maringá →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–17%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Parana or draw
92%
Parana or Grêmio Maringá
84%
Draw or Grêmio Maringá
23%

Winning margin

Parana wins by 2+
53%
Grêmio Maringá wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Parana 1+ goals
91%
Parana 2+ goals
68%
Parana 3+ goals
42%
Grêmio Maringá 1+ goals
46%
Grêmio Maringá 2+ goals
13%
Grêmio Maringá 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Parana (draw refunded)
91%
Grêmio Maringá (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Parana at home — creates 2.16, concedes 0.53 · 19 matches

Grêmio Maringá away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Parana attack 2.16 + Grêmio Maringá defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.38

Grêmio Maringá attack 0.70 + Parana defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Parana scores more
77%
level
16%
Grêmio Maringá scores more
8%

Parana at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Parana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
Cristiano
23'
Cristiano
39'
Gelton Francisco
40'
Eliandro
57'
J. Schuttz
69'
CristianoPenalty
84'
Ravanelli
86'
Murilo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Parana vs Grêmio Maringá

Parana beat Grêmio Maringá 6-2 in Paranaense - 2 on June 21, 2024.

Goals: Cristiano (7', 23', 69' pen), Gelton Francisco (39'), Eliandro (40'), J. Schuttz (57'), Ravanelli (84'), Murilo (86').

The match was played at Estádio Durival de Britto e Silva in Curitiba, Paraná.