Parana 3–0 Apucarana: Result & Stats

Parana

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Apucarana

Liliu 70'

Fabio Magrao 45+1', 16'

5/11/2024

Paranaense - 2 · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Parana65%

×Draw22%

Apucarana13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ParanaExpected goals in this matchApucarana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

0.66

Parana

1.83

Apucarana

0.66

Parana creates 177% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 24 away

2.16

creates per match

0.79

0.53

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Parana

2.16

Apucarana

0.79

allows per match

Parana

0.53

Apucarana

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Parana+0.00on par

Apucarana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Parana ↓

Apucarana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Parana or draw

87%

Parana or Apucarana

78%

Draw or Apucarana

35%

Winning margin

Parana wins by 2+

39%

Apucarana wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Parana 1+ goals

84%

Parana 2+ goals

54%

Parana 3+ goals

28%

Apucarana 1+ goals

48%

Apucarana 2+ goals

14%

Apucarana 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Parana (draw refunded)

84%

Apucarana (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Parana at home — creates 2.16, concedes 0.53 · 19 matches

Apucarana away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.50 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Parana attack 2.16 + Apucarana defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.83

Apucarana attack 0.79 + Parana defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Parana scores more

65%

level

22%

Apucarana scores more

13%

Parana at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Parana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

Fabio Magrao

45+1'

Fabio Magrao

70'

Liliu

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff