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Paraná U20 vs Cambé U20 — Paranaense U20 2024

Paraná U20
Paraná U20
FT
0 – 1
Cambé U20
Cambé U20
5/18/2024Paranaense U20Paranaense U20 · 1st Stage - 10Estádio Érton Coelho de Queiroz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Paraná U2050%
×Draw23%
Cambé U2027%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paraná U20
1.77
Cambé U20
1.23

Paraná U20 creates 44% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 6 away

creates per match

Paraná U20
1.54
Cambé U20
0.83

allows per match

Paraná U20
1.62
Cambé U20
2.00

finishing

Paraná U20+0.00on par
Cambé U20+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paraná U20 ↓

Cambé U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Paraná U20 or draw
73%
Paraná U20 or Cambé U20
77%
Draw or Cambé U20
50%

Winning margin

Paraná U20 wins by 2+
27%
Cambé U20 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Paraná U20 1+ goals
83%
Paraná U20 2+ goals
53%
Paraná U20 3+ goals
26%
Cambé U20 1+ goals
71%
Cambé U20 2+ goals
35%
Cambé U20 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Paraná U20 (draw refunded)
65%
Cambé U20 (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paraná U20 at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

Cambé U20 away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paraná U20 attack 1.54 + Cambé U20 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.77

Cambé U20 attack 0.83 + Paraná U20 defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Paraná U20 scores more
50%
level
23%
Cambé U20 scores more
27%

Paraná U20 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Paraná U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Paraná U20 vs Cambé U20

Cambé U20 beat Paraná U20 1-0 in Paranaense U20 on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Érton Coelho de Queiroz in Curitiba, Paraná.