Parana S.T.C. U20 3–3 Londrina U20: Result & Stats

Parana S.T.C. U20

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 0

Londrina U20

5/17/2024

Paranaense U20 · 1st Stage - 12Estádio Municipal Alvaro Alves

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Parana S.T.C. U2058%

×Draw17%

Londrina U2024%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Parana S.T.C. U20Expected goals in this matchLondrina U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.10

2.02

Parana S.T.C. U20

3.10

Londrina U20

2.02

Parana S.T.C. U20 creates 53% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 15 away

4.33

creates per match

1.87

2.17

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Parana S.T.C. U20

4.33

Londrina U20

1.87

allows per match

Parana S.T.C. U20

2.17

Londrina U20

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Parana S.T.C. U20+0.00on par

Londrina U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over88
Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes83
No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Parana S.T.C. U20 ↓

Londrina U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–02%

1–14%

1–24%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–15%

4–25%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–1 (6%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

88%12%3.5

74%26%4.5

56%44%

Double chance

Parana S.T.C. U20 or draw

76%

Parana S.T.C. U20 or Londrina U20

83%

Draw or Londrina U20

42%

Winning margin

Parana S.T.C. U20 wins by 2+

40%

Londrina U20 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Parana S.T.C. U20 1+ goals

95%

Parana S.T.C. U20 2+ goals

81%

Parana S.T.C. U20 3+ goals

58%

Londrina U20 1+ goals

87%

Londrina U20 2+ goals

60%

Londrina U20 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Parana S.T.C. U20 (draw refunded)

71%

Londrina U20 (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

79%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Parana S.T.C. U20 at home — creates 4.33, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

Londrina U20 away — creates 1.87, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Parana S.T.C. U20 attack 4.33 + Londrina U20 defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 3.10

Londrina U20 attack 1.87 + Parana S.T.C. U20 defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Parana S.T.C. U20 scores more

58%

level

17%

Londrina U20 scores more

24%

Parana S.T.C. U20 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Parana S.T.C. U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff