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Parana S.T.C. U20 vs Independente FSJ U20 — Paranaense U20 2024

Parana S.T.C. U20
Parana S.T.C. U20
FT
4 – 2
Independente FSJ U20
Independente FSJ U20
3/9/2024Paranaense U20Paranaense U20 · 1st Stage - 2Estádio Municipal Alvaro Alves

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Parana S.T.C. U2039%
×Draw18%
Independente FSJ U2043%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Parana S.T.C. U20
2.92
Independente FSJ U20
3.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Parana S.T.C. U20
4.33
Independente FSJ U20
4.00

allows per match

Parana S.T.C. U20
2.17
Independente FSJ U20
1.50

finishing

Parana S.T.C. U20+0.00on par
Independente FSJ U20+0.00on par

Total goals

93%Over
  • Over93
  • Under7

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

90%Yes
  • Yes90
  • No10

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Parana S.T.C. U20 ↓

Independente FSJ U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–24%
1–34%
1–43%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–25%
3–35%
3–44%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–24%
4–34%
4–43%

Most likely 2–3 (6%) · grid covers 71% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
93%7%3.5
84%16%4.5
69%31%

Double chance

Parana S.T.C. U20 or draw
57%
Parana S.T.C. U20 or Independente FSJ U20
82%
Draw or Independente FSJ U20
61%

Winning margin

Parana S.T.C. U20 wins by 2+
23%
Independente FSJ U20 wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Parana S.T.C. U20 1+ goals
94%
Parana S.T.C. U20 2+ goals
78%
Parana S.T.C. U20 3+ goals
55%
Independente FSJ U20 1+ goals
95%
Independente FSJ U20 2+ goals
81%
Independente FSJ U20 3+ goals
58%

Draw no bet

Parana S.T.C. U20 (draw refunded)
47%
Independente FSJ U20 (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
88%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Parana S.T.C. U20 at home — creates 4.33, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

Independente FSJ U20 away — creates 4.00, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Parana S.T.C. U20 attack 4.33 + Independente FSJ U20 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.92

Independente FSJ U20 attack 4.00 + Parana S.T.C. U20 defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 3.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Parana S.T.C. U20 scores more
39%
level
18%
Independente FSJ U20 scores more
43%

Independente FSJ U20 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Independente FSJ U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paranaense U20: Parana S.T.C. U20 4–2 Independente FSJ U20

Parana S.T.C. U20 beat Independente FSJ U20 4-2 in Paranaense U20 on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Alvaro Alves in Alvorada do Sul, Paraná.