Parana S.T.C. U20 3–4 Cianorte U20: Result & Stats

Parana S.T.C. U20

FT

3 – 4

Cianorte U20

3/23/2024

Paranaense U20 · 1st Stage - 4Estádio Municipal Alvaro Alves

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Parana S.T.C. U2064%

×Draw16%

Cianorte U2020%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Parana S.T.C. U20Expected goals in this matchCianorte U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.42

1.96

Parana S.T.C. U20

3.42

Cianorte U20

1.96

Parana S.T.C. U20 creates 74% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 12 away

4.33

creates per match

1.75

2.17

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Parana S.T.C. U20

4.33

Cianorte U20

1.75

allows per match

Parana S.T.C. U20

2.17

Cianorte U20

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Parana S.T.C. U20+0.00on par

Cianorte U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over90
Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes83
No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Parana S.T.C. U20 ↓

Cianorte U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–00%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–02%

1–13%

1–23%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–25%

4–34%

4–42%

Most likely 2–1 (6%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

97%3%2.5

90%10%3.5

77%23%4.5

60%40%

Double chance

Parana S.T.C. U20 or draw

80%

Parana S.T.C. U20 or Cianorte U20

84%

Draw or Cianorte U20

36%

Winning margin

Parana S.T.C. U20 wins by 2+

45%

Cianorte U20 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Parana S.T.C. U20 1+ goals

97%

Parana S.T.C. U20 2+ goals

85%

Parana S.T.C. U20 3+ goals

64%

Cianorte U20 1+ goals

86%

Cianorte U20 2+ goals

58%

Cianorte U20 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Parana S.T.C. U20 (draw refunded)

76%

Cianorte U20 (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

80%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Parana S.T.C. U20 at home — creates 4.33, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

Cianorte U20 away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Parana S.T.C. U20 attack 4.33 + Cianorte U20 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 3.42

Cianorte U20 attack 1.75 + Parana S.T.C. U20 defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Parana S.T.C. U20 scores more

64%

level

16%

Cianorte U20 scores more

20%

Parana S.T.C. U20 at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Parana S.T.C. U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff