Parana S.T.C. U20 10–1 Campo Mourao U20

Parana S.T.C. U20

FT

10 – 1

Campo Mourao U20

3/2/2024

Paranaense U20 · 1st Stage - 1Estádio Municipal Alvaro Alves

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Parana S.T.C. U2081%

×Draw10%

Campo Mourao U209%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Parana S.T.C. U20Expected goals in this matchCampo Mourao U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4.33

1.50

Parana S.T.C. U20

4.33

Campo Mourao U20

1.50

Parana S.T.C. U20 creates 189% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

4.33

creates per match

0.83

2.17

allows per match

4.33

creates per match

Parana S.T.C. U20

4.33

Campo Mourao U20

0.83

allows per match

Parana S.T.C. U20

2.17

Campo Mourao U20

4.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Parana S.T.C. U20+0.00on par

Campo Mourao U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over92
Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Parana S.T.C. U20 ↓

Campo Mourao U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–00%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–01%

1–12%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–18%

4–26%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 4–1 (8%) · grid covers 65% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

92%8%3.5

80%20%4.5

64%36%

Double chance

Parana S.T.C. U20 or draw

91%

Parana S.T.C. U20 or Campo Mourao U20

90%

Draw or Campo Mourao U20

19%

Winning margin

Parana S.T.C. U20 wins by 2+

65%

Campo Mourao U20 wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Parana S.T.C. U20 1+ goals

98%

Parana S.T.C. U20 2+ goals

92%

Parana S.T.C. U20 3+ goals

77%

Campo Mourao U20 1+ goals

78%

Campo Mourao U20 2+ goals

44%

Campo Mourao U20 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Parana S.T.C. U20 (draw refunded)

90%

Campo Mourao U20 (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

74%

Both score & under 3

2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Parana S.T.C. U20 at home — creates 4.33, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

Campo Mourao U20 away — creates 0.83, concedes 4.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Parana S.T.C. U20 attack 4.33 + Campo Mourao U20 defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 4.33

Campo Mourao U20 attack 0.83 + Parana S.T.C. U20 defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Parana S.T.C. U20 scores more

81%

level

10%

Campo Mourao U20 scores more

9%

Parana S.T.C. U20 at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Parana S.T.C. U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff