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Parana S.T.C. U20 vs AA Iguacu U20 — Paranaense U20 2024

Parana S.T.C. U20
Parana S.T.C. U20
FT
3 – 1
AA Iguacu U20
AA Iguacu U20
3/29/2024Paranaense U20Paranaense U20 · 1st Stage - 5PSTC Centro de Treinamento de Futebol do Paraná

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Parana S.T.C. U2076%
×Draw12%
AA Iguacu U2012%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Parana S.T.C. U20
3.92
AA Iguacu U20
1.58

Parana S.T.C. U20 creates 148% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Parana S.T.C. U20
4.33
AA Iguacu U20
1.00

allows per match

Parana S.T.C. U20
2.17
AA Iguacu U20
3.50

finishing

Parana S.T.C. U20+0.00on par
AA Iguacu U20+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Parana S.T.C. U20 ↓

AA Iguacu U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–13%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–17%
4–26%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 70% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
77%23%4.5
60%40%

Double chance

Parana S.T.C. U20 or draw
88%
Parana S.T.C. U20 or AA Iguacu U20
88%
Draw or AA Iguacu U20
24%

Winning margin

Parana S.T.C. U20 wins by 2+
59%
AA Iguacu U20 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Parana S.T.C. U20 1+ goals
98%
Parana S.T.C. U20 2+ goals
89%
Parana S.T.C. U20 3+ goals
72%
AA Iguacu U20 1+ goals
79%
AA Iguacu U20 2+ goals
47%
AA Iguacu U20 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Parana S.T.C. U20 (draw refunded)
87%
AA Iguacu U20 (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Parana S.T.C. U20 at home — creates 4.33, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

AA Iguacu U20 away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Parana S.T.C. U20 attack 4.33 + AA Iguacu U20 defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 3.92

AA Iguacu U20 attack 1.00 + Parana S.T.C. U20 defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Parana S.T.C. U20 scores more
76%
level
12%
AA Iguacu U20 scores more
12%

Parana S.T.C. U20 at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Parana S.T.C. U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paranaense U20: Parana S.T.C. U20 3–1 AA Iguacu U20

Parana S.T.C. U20 beat AA Iguacu U20 3-1 in Paranaense U20 on March 29, 2024.

The match was played at PSTC Centro de Treinamento de Futebol do Paraná in Londrina, Paraná.