Paraguay W 1–2 Uruguay W: Result & Stats

Paraguay W

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Uruguay W

D. Bareiro 39'

B. Aquino 53'

A. Paz 28'

2/21/2025

Friendlies Women · FriendliesEstadio Carfem

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Paraguay W32%

×Draw28%

Uruguay W40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Paraguay WExpected goals in this matchUruguay W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.25

Paraguay W

1.09

Uruguay W

1.25

Uruguay W creates 15% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 17 away

1.00

creates per match

1.06

1.44

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Paraguay W

1.00

Uruguay W

1.06

allows per match

Paraguay W

1.44

Uruguay W

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paraguay W+0.00on par

Uruguay W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paraguay W ↓

Uruguay W →

0–010%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Paraguay W or draw

60%

Paraguay W or Uruguay W

72%

Draw or Uruguay W

68%

Winning margin

Paraguay W wins by 2+

13%

Uruguay W wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Paraguay W 1+ goals

66%

Paraguay W 2+ goals

30%

Paraguay W 3+ goals

10%

Uruguay W 1+ goals

71%

Uruguay W 2+ goals

36%

Uruguay W 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Paraguay W (draw refunded)

45%

Uruguay W (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Paraguay W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

Uruguay W away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Paraguay W attack 1.00 + Uruguay W defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.09

Uruguay W attack 1.06 + Paraguay W defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Paraguay W scores more

32%

level

28%

Uruguay W scores more

40%

Uruguay W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Uruguay W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

39'

42'

53'

59'

61'

F. Godoy← T. Riso

65'

W. Carballo← E. Pizarro

70'

75'

R. Mino← C. Aguilera

75'

F. Acosta← C. Martinez Ovando

80'

J. Viera← X. Velazco

80'

P. Gonzalez← S. Tregartten

83'

85'

89'

A. Riveros← R. Martinez

89'

S. Lopez← B. Aquino

89'

K. Silveira← C. Felipe

Paraguay

Uruguay

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Fábio Akio Fukumoto

61'▲F. Godoy←▼T. Riso

75'▲R. Mino←▼C. Aguilera

75'▲F. Acosta←▼C. Martinez Ovando

89'▲A. Riveros←▼R. Martinez

Paraguay W substitutes

12Belotto22Caniza27Lopez6Godoy7Riveros8Mino13Rolon14Alonso15Fretes17Perruchini20Acosta21Martinez24Leon26Tamay25Garcete

Manager: Ariel Eduardo Longo de Caterina

65'▲W. Carballo←▼E. Pizarro

80'▲J. Viera←▼X. Velazco

80'▲P. Gonzalez←▼S. Tregartten

89'▲S. Lopez←▼B. Aquino

89'▲K. Silveira←▼C. Felipe

Uruguay W substitutes

1Olmedo13Olivera15Barone18Viera20Lopez22Ramondegui5Fitipaldi6Ramirez17Gonzalez19Carballo21Cola23Silveira

Match Recap: Paraguay W vs Uruguay W

Uruguay W beat Paraguay W 2-1 in Friendlies Women on February 21, 2025.

Goals: A. Paz (28'), D. Bareiro (39'), B. Aquino (53').

The match was played at Estadio Carfem.

Paraguay W vs Uruguay W — Friendlies Women 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Paraguay W vs Uruguay W