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Paragominas vs Palmas — Serie D 2018

Paragominas
Paragominas
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Palmas
Palmas
8/1/2021Serie DSerie D · Round 9Arena Verde

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Paragominas62%
×Draw21%
Palmas18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paragominas
2.09
Palmas
1.03

Paragominas creates 103% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 17 away

creates per match

Paragominas
1.89
Palmas
1.06

allows per match

Paragominas
1.00
Palmas
2.29

finishing

Paragominas+0.00on par
Palmas+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paragominas ↓

Palmas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Paragominas or draw
82%
Paragominas or Palmas
79%
Draw or Palmas
38%

Winning margin

Paragominas wins by 2+
38%
Palmas wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Paragominas 1+ goals
88%
Paragominas 2+ goals
62%
Paragominas 3+ goals
34%
Palmas 1+ goals
64%
Palmas 2+ goals
28%
Palmas 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Paragominas (draw refunded)
77%
Palmas (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paragominas at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Palmas away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paragominas attack 1.89 + Palmas defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.09

Palmas attack 1.06 + Paragominas defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Paragominas scores more
62%
level
21%
Palmas scores more
18%

Paragominas at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Paragominas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Paragominas vs Palmas

Paragominas and Palmas drew 1-1 in Serie D on August 1, 2021.

The match was played at Arena Verde in Paragominas, Pará.