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Paradou AC vs US Souf — Ligue 1 2018

Paradou AC
Paradou AC
FT
6 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
US Souf
US Souf
5/26/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 27Stade Dar El Beïda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Paradou AC71%
×Draw18%
US Souf10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paradou AC
2.14
US Souf
0.66

Paradou AC creates 224% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 15 away

creates per match

Paradou AC
1.41
US Souf
0.33

allows per match

Paradou AC
0.98
US Souf
2.87

finishing

Paradou AC+0.00on par
US Souf+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paradou AC ↓

US Souf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Paradou AC or draw
90%
Paradou AC or US Souf
82%
Draw or US Souf
29%

Winning margin

Paradou AC wins by 2+
47%
US Souf wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Paradou AC 1+ goals
88%
Paradou AC 2+ goals
63%
Paradou AC 3+ goals
36%
US Souf 1+ goals
48%
US Souf 2+ goals
14%
US Souf 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Paradou AC (draw refunded)
87%
US Souf (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paradou AC at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.98 · 122 matches

US Souf away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paradou AC attack 1.41 + US Souf defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.14

US Souf attack 0.33 + Paradou AC defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Paradou AC scores more
71%
level
18%
US Souf scores more
10%

Paradou AC at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Paradou AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paradou AC 6 – 0 US Souf

Paradou AC beat US Souf 6-0 in Ligue 1 on May 26, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Dar El Beïda in Algiers.