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Paradou AC vs Olympique Akbou — Ligue 1 2018

Paradou AC
Paradou AC
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Olympique Akbou
Olympique Akbou
10/11/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 4Stade du 20 Août 1955

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Paradou AC44%
×Draw29%
Olympique Akbou27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paradou AC
1.27
Olympique Akbou
0.94

Paradou AC creates 35% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 30 away

creates per match

Paradou AC
1.41
Olympique Akbou
0.90

allows per match

Paradou AC
0.98
Olympique Akbou
1.13

finishing

Paradou AC+0.00on par
Olympique Akbou+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paradou AC ↓

Olympique Akbou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Paradou AC or draw
73%
Paradou AC or Olympique Akbou
71%
Draw or Olympique Akbou
56%

Winning margin

Paradou AC wins by 2+
20%
Olympique Akbou wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Paradou AC 1+ goals
72%
Paradou AC 2+ goals
36%
Paradou AC 3+ goals
14%
Olympique Akbou 1+ goals
61%
Olympique Akbou 2+ goals
24%
Olympique Akbou 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Paradou AC (draw refunded)
62%
Olympique Akbou (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paradou AC at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.98 · 122 matches

Olympique Akbou away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paradou AC attack 1.41 + Olympique Akbou defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.27

Olympique Akbou attack 0.90 + Paradou AC defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Paradou AC scores more
44%
level
29%
Olympique Akbou scores more
27%

Paradou AC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Paradou AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Paradou AC vs Olympique Akbou

Olympique Akbou beat Paradou AC 3-1 in Ligue 1 on October 11, 2024.

The match was played at Stade du 20 Août 1955 in Algiers.