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Paradou AC vs CR Belouizdad — Ligue 1 2018

Paradou AC
Paradou AC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
CR Belouizdad
CR Belouizdad
11/14/2023Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 3Stade Dar El Beïda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 123+ matches

Paradou AC35%
×Draw29%
CR Belouizdad36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paradou AC
1.09
CR Belouizdad
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 123 home / 123 away

creates per match

Paradou AC
1.41
CR Belouizdad
1.22

allows per match

Paradou AC
0.98
CR Belouizdad
0.77

finishing

Paradou AC+0.00on par
CR Belouizdad+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paradou AC ↓

CR Belouizdad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Paradou AC or draw
64%
Paradou AC or CR Belouizdad
71%
Draw or CR Belouizdad
65%

Winning margin

Paradou AC wins by 2+
14%
CR Belouizdad wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Paradou AC 1+ goals
66%
Paradou AC 2+ goals
30%
Paradou AC 3+ goals
10%
CR Belouizdad 1+ goals
67%
CR Belouizdad 2+ goals
30%
CR Belouizdad 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Paradou AC (draw refunded)
50%
CR Belouizdad (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paradou AC at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.98 · 123 matches

CR Belouizdad away — creates 1.22, concedes 0.77 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paradou AC attack 1.41 + CR Belouizdad defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.09

CR Belouizdad attack 1.22 + Paradou AC defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Paradou AC scores more
35%
level
29%
CR Belouizdad scores more
36%

CR Belouizdad at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "CR Belouizdad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Paradou AC vs CR Belouizdad

CR Belouizdad beat Paradou AC 1-0 in Ligue 1 on November 14, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Dar El Beïda in Algiers.