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CR Belouizdad vs Paradou AC — Ligue 1 2018

CR Belouizdad
CR Belouizdad
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Paradou AC
Paradou AC
8/30/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 2Stade du 20 Août 1955

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 121+ matches

CR Belouizdad52%
×Draw26%
Paradou AC22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CR Belouizdad
1.50
Paradou AC
0.88

CR Belouizdad creates 70% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 121 away

creates per match

CR Belouizdad
1.69
Paradou AC
1.08

allows per match

CR Belouizdad
0.68
Paradou AC
1.32

finishing

CR Belouizdad+0.00on par
Paradou AC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CR Belouizdad ↓

Paradou AC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

CR Belouizdad or draw
78%
CR Belouizdad or Paradou AC
74%
Draw or Paradou AC
48%

Winning margin

CR Belouizdad wins by 2+
26%
Paradou AC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

CR Belouizdad 1+ goals
78%
CR Belouizdad 2+ goals
44%
CR Belouizdad 3+ goals
19%
Paradou AC 1+ goals
59%
Paradou AC 2+ goals
22%
Paradou AC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

CR Belouizdad (draw refunded)
70%
Paradou AC (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CR Belouizdad at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.68 · 122 matches

Paradou AC away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.32 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CR Belouizdad attack 1.69 + Paradou AC defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.50

Paradou AC attack 1.08 + CR Belouizdad defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

CR Belouizdad scores more
52%
level
26%
Paradou AC scores more
22%

CR Belouizdad at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "CR Belouizdad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CR Belouizdad vs Paradou AC

CR Belouizdad beat Paradou AC 1-0 in Ligue 1 on August 30, 2025.

The match was played at Stade du 20 Août 1955 in al-Jazā’ir (Algiers).