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Paradou AC vs ASO Chlef — Ligue 1 2018

Paradou AC
Paradou AC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
ASO Chlef
ASO Chlef
8/23/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 1Stade Dar El Beïda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Paradou AC47%
×Draw27%
ASO Chlef26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paradou AC
1.40
ASO Chlef
0.95

Paradou AC creates 47% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 106 away

creates per match

Paradou AC
1.41
ASO Chlef
0.92

allows per match

Paradou AC
0.98
ASO Chlef
1.40

finishing

Paradou AC+0.00on par
ASO Chlef+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paradou AC ↓

ASO Chlef →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Paradou AC or draw
74%
Paradou AC or ASO Chlef
73%
Draw or ASO Chlef
53%

Winning margin

Paradou AC wins by 2+
23%
ASO Chlef wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Paradou AC 1+ goals
75%
Paradou AC 2+ goals
41%
Paradou AC 3+ goals
17%
ASO Chlef 1+ goals
61%
ASO Chlef 2+ goals
25%
ASO Chlef 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Paradou AC (draw refunded)
65%
ASO Chlef (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paradou AC at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.98 · 123 matches

ASO Chlef away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.40 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paradou AC attack 1.41 + ASO Chlef defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.40

ASO Chlef attack 0.92 + Paradou AC defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Paradou AC scores more
47%
level
27%
ASO Chlef scores more
26%

Paradou AC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Paradou AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Paradou AC 0–0 ASO Chlef

Paradou AC and ASO Chlef drew 0-0 in Ligue 1 on August 23, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Dar El Beïda in al-Jazā’ir (Algiers).