Paradiso 1–1 Servette II: Result & Stats

Paradiso

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Servette II

2/24/2024

1. Liga Promotion · Round 20Campo Pian Scairolo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Paradiso44%

×Draw24%

Servette II31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ParadisoExpected goals in this matchServette II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.31

Paradiso

1.60

Servette II

1.31

Paradiso creates 22% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

1.33

creates per match

1.24

1.37

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Paradiso

1.33

Servette II

1.24

allows per match

Paradiso

1.37

Servette II

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paradiso+0.00on par

Servette II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paradiso ↓

Servette II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Paradiso or draw

69%

Paradiso or Servette II

76%

Draw or Servette II

56%

Winning margin

Paradiso wins by 2+

22%

Servette II wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Paradiso 1+ goals

80%

Paradiso 2+ goals

47%

Paradiso 3+ goals

22%

Servette II 1+ goals

73%

Servette II 2+ goals

38%

Servette II 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Paradiso (draw refunded)

58%

Servette II (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paradiso at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.37 · 51 matches

Servette II away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paradiso attack 1.33 + Servette II defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.60

Servette II attack 1.24 + Paradiso defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Paradiso scores more

44%

level

24%

Servette II scores more

31%

Paradiso at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Paradiso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff