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Paradiso vs Biel-Bienne — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Paradiso
Paradiso
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Biel-Bienne
Biel-Bienne
11/16/20241. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 17Campo Pian Scairolo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Paradiso37%
×Draw24%
Biel-Bienne38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paradiso
1.48
Biel-Bienne
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 86 away

creates per match

Paradiso
1.33
Biel-Bienne
1.64

allows per match

Paradiso
1.37
Biel-Bienne
1.63

finishing

Paradiso+0.00on par
Biel-Bienne+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paradiso ↓

Biel-Bienne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Paradiso or draw
62%
Paradiso or Biel-Bienne
76%
Draw or Biel-Bienne
63%

Winning margin

Paradiso wins by 2+
18%
Biel-Bienne wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Paradiso 1+ goals
77%
Paradiso 2+ goals
43%
Paradiso 3+ goals
19%
Biel-Bienne 1+ goals
78%
Biel-Bienne 2+ goals
44%
Biel-Bienne 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Paradiso (draw refunded)
49%
Biel-Bienne (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paradiso at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.37 · 51 matches

Biel-Bienne away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.63 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paradiso attack 1.33 + Biel-Bienne defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.48

Biel-Bienne attack 1.64 + Paradiso defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Paradiso scores more
37%
level
24%
Biel-Bienne scores more
38%

Biel-Bienne at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Biel-Bienne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Paradiso vs Biel-Bienne

Biel-Bienne beat Paradiso 1-0 in 1. Liga Promotion on November 16, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Pian Scairolo in Collina d’Oro.