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Paradiso vs Basel II — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Paradiso
Paradiso
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Basel II
Basel II
9/18/20241. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 7Campo Pian Scairolo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Paradiso38%
×Draw24%
Basel II38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paradiso
1.54
Basel II
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 106 away

creates per match

Paradiso
1.33
Basel II
1.70

allows per match

Paradiso
1.37
Basel II
1.75

finishing

Paradiso+0.00on par
Basel II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paradiso ↓

Basel II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Paradiso or draw
62%
Paradiso or Basel II
76%
Draw or Basel II
62%

Winning margin

Paradiso wins by 2+
18%
Basel II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Paradiso 1+ goals
79%
Paradiso 2+ goals
45%
Paradiso 3+ goals
20%
Basel II 1+ goals
79%
Basel II 2+ goals
45%
Basel II 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Paradiso (draw refunded)
50%
Basel II (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paradiso at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.37 · 51 matches

Basel II away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.75 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paradiso attack 1.33 + Basel II defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.54

Basel II attack 1.70 + Paradiso defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Paradiso scores more
38%
level
24%
Basel II scores more
38%

Paradiso at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Paradiso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Promotion: Paradiso 1–3 Basel II

Basel II beat Paradiso 3-1 in 1. Liga Promotion on September 18, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Pian Scairolo in Collina d’Oro.