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Paradise vs Wotton — Premier League 2026

Paradise
Paradise
FT
11 – 2
HT: 7 – 0
Wotton
Wotton
5/3/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Paradise71%
×Draw14%
Wotton14%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paradise
3.25
Wotton
1.44

Paradise creates 126% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

creates per match

Paradise
2.56
Wotton
1.13

allows per match

Paradise
1.75
Wotton
3.94

finishing

Paradise+0.00on par
Wotton+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paradise ↓

Wotton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Paradise or draw
86%
Paradise or Wotton
86%
Draw or Wotton
29%

Winning margin

Paradise wins by 2+
52%
Wotton wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Paradise 1+ goals
96%
Paradise 2+ goals
83%
Paradise 3+ goals
61%
Wotton 1+ goals
76%
Wotton 2+ goals
42%
Wotton 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Paradise (draw refunded)
83%
Wotton (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paradise at home — creates 2.56, concedes 1.75 · 16 matches

Wotton away — creates 1.13, concedes 3.94 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paradise attack 2.56 + Wotton defence 3.94 → ÷2 → 3.25

Wotton attack 1.13 + Paradise defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Paradise scores more
71%
level
14%
Wotton scores more
14%

Paradise at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Paradise will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Paradise vs Wotton

Paradise beat Wotton 11-2 in Premier League on May 3, 2026.