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Paradise vs UWI Blackbirds — Premier League 2019

Paradise
Paradise
FT
1 – 3
UWI Blackbirds
UWI Blackbirds
5/19/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Paradise45%
×Draw22%
UWI Blackbirds33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paradise
1.92
UWI Blackbirds
1.61

Paradise creates 19% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 37 away

creates per match

Paradise
2.26
UWI Blackbirds
1.59

allows per match

Paradise
1.63
UWI Blackbirds
1.59

finishing

Paradise+0.00on par
UWI Blackbirds+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paradise ↓

UWI Blackbirds →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Paradise or draw
67%
Paradise or UWI Blackbirds
78%
Draw or UWI Blackbirds
55%

Winning margin

Paradise wins by 2+
25%
UWI Blackbirds wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Paradise 1+ goals
85%
Paradise 2+ goals
57%
Paradise 3+ goals
30%
UWI Blackbirds 1+ goals
80%
UWI Blackbirds 2+ goals
48%
UWI Blackbirds 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Paradise (draw refunded)
58%
UWI Blackbirds (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paradise at home — creates 2.26, concedes 1.63 · 43 matches

UWI Blackbirds away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.59 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paradise attack 2.26 + UWI Blackbirds defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.92

UWI Blackbirds attack 1.59 + Paradise defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Paradise scores more
45%
level
22%
UWI Blackbirds scores more
33%

Paradise at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Paradise will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Paradise vs UWI Blackbirds

UWI Blackbirds beat Paradise 3-1 in Premier League on May 19, 2024.

The match was played at Wildey Turf in Bridgetown.