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Paradise vs Silver Sands — Premier League 2019

Paradise
Paradise
FT
2 – 0
Silver Sands
Silver Sands
1/19/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Paradise70%
×Draw16%
Silver Sands14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paradise
2.87
Silver Sands
1.23

Paradise creates 133% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 23 away

creates per match

Paradise
2.26
Silver Sands
0.83

allows per match

Paradise
1.63
Silver Sands
3.48

finishing

Paradise+0.00on par
Silver Sands+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paradise ↓

Silver Sands →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Paradise or draw
86%
Paradise or Silver Sands
84%
Draw or Silver Sands
30%

Winning margin

Paradise wins by 2+
50%
Silver Sands wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Paradise 1+ goals
94%
Paradise 2+ goals
77%
Paradise 3+ goals
53%
Silver Sands 1+ goals
71%
Silver Sands 2+ goals
35%
Silver Sands 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Paradise (draw refunded)
83%
Silver Sands (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paradise at home — creates 2.26, concedes 1.63 · 43 matches

Silver Sands away — creates 0.83, concedes 3.48 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paradise attack 2.26 + Silver Sands defence 3.48 → ÷2 → 2.87

Silver Sands attack 0.83 + Paradise defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Paradise scores more
70%
level
16%
Silver Sands scores more
14%

Paradise at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Paradise will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Paradise vs Silver Sands

Paradise beat Silver Sands 2-0 in Premier League on January 19, 2025.

The match was played at Wildey Turf in Bridgetown.