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Paradise vs Kick Start — Premier League 2019

Paradise
Paradise
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Kick Start
Kick Start
4/6/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 6Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Paradise39%
×Draw23%
Kick Start38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paradise
1.72
Kick Start
1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 28 away

creates per match

Paradise
2.26
Kick Start
1.75

allows per match

Paradise
1.63
Kick Start
1.18

finishing

Paradise+0.00on par
Kick Start+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paradise ↓

Kick Start →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Paradise or draw
62%
Paradise or Kick Start
77%
Draw or Kick Start
61%

Winning margin

Paradise wins by 2+
20%
Kick Start wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Paradise 1+ goals
82%
Paradise 2+ goals
51%
Paradise 3+ goals
25%
Kick Start 1+ goals
82%
Kick Start 2+ goals
50%
Kick Start 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Paradise (draw refunded)
51%
Kick Start (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paradise at home — creates 2.26, concedes 1.63 · 43 matches

Kick Start away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.18 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paradise attack 2.26 + Kick Start defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.72

Kick Start attack 1.75 + Paradise defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Paradise scores more
39%
level
23%
Kick Start scores more
38%

Paradise at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Paradise will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Paradise 2–4 Kick Start

Kick Start beat Paradise 4-2 in Premier League on April 6, 2025.

The match was played at Wildey Turf in Bridgetown.