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Paradise vs Deacons — Premier League 2019

Paradise
Paradise
FT
1 – 1
Deacons
Deacons
4/2/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 5Friendship Playing Fields

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Paradise57%
×Draw19%
Deacons24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paradise
2.44
Deacons
1.55

Paradise creates 57% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 32 away

creates per match

Paradise
2.26
Deacons
1.47

allows per match

Paradise
1.63
Deacons
2.63

finishing

Paradise+0.00on par
Deacons+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paradise ↓

Deacons →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Paradise or draw
76%
Paradise or Deacons
81%
Draw or Deacons
43%

Winning margin

Paradise wins by 2+
36%
Deacons wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Paradise 1+ goals
91%
Paradise 2+ goals
70%
Paradise 3+ goals
43%
Deacons 1+ goals
79%
Deacons 2+ goals
46%
Deacons 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Paradise (draw refunded)
70%
Deacons (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paradise at home — creates 2.26, concedes 1.63 · 43 matches

Deacons away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.63 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paradise attack 2.26 + Deacons defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.44

Deacons attack 1.47 + Paradise defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Paradise scores more
57%
level
19%
Deacons scores more
24%

Paradise at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Paradise will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Paradise 1–1 Deacons

Paradise and Deacons drew 1-1 in Premier League on April 2, 2024.

The match was played at Friendship Playing Fields in Friendship.