Paradise 2–3 Brittons Hill: Result & Stats

Paradise

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Brittons Hill

2/22/2026

Premier League · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Paradise49%

×Draw20%

Brittons Hill31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ParadiseExpected goals in this matchBrittons Hill

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.41

1.91

Paradise

2.41

Brittons Hill

1.91

Paradise creates 26% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 13 away

2.67

creates per match

2.15

1.67

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

Paradise

2.67

Brittons Hill

2.15

allows per match

Paradise

1.67

Brittons Hill

2.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paradise+0.00on par

Brittons Hill+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paradise ↓

Brittons Hill →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–22%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Paradise or draw

69%

Paradise or Brittons Hill

80%

Draw or Brittons Hill

51%

Winning margin

Paradise wins by 2+

30%

Brittons Hill wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Paradise 1+ goals

91%

Paradise 2+ goals

69%

Paradise 3+ goals

43%

Brittons Hill 1+ goals

85%

Brittons Hill 2+ goals

57%

Brittons Hill 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Paradise (draw refunded)

61%

Brittons Hill (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paradise at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

Brittons Hill away — creates 2.15, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paradise attack 2.67 + Brittons Hill defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.41

Brittons Hill attack 2.15 + Paradise defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Paradise scores more

49%

level

20%

Brittons Hill scores more

31%

Paradise at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Paradise will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff