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Paradise vs BDF — Premier League 2019

Paradise
Paradise
FT
0 – 4
BDF
BDF
8/16/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 14Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Paradise51%
×Draw20%
BDF29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paradise
2.39
BDF
1.78

Paradise creates 34% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 15 away

creates per match

Paradise
2.26
BDF
1.93

allows per match

Paradise
1.63
BDF
2.53

finishing

Paradise+0.00on par
BDF+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paradise ↓

BDF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Paradise or draw
71%
Paradise or BDF
80%
Draw or BDF
49%

Winning margin

Paradise wins by 2+
31%
BDF wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Paradise 1+ goals
91%
Paradise 2+ goals
69%
Paradise 3+ goals
42%
BDF 1+ goals
83%
BDF 2+ goals
53%
BDF 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Paradise (draw refunded)
64%
BDF (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paradise at home — creates 2.26, concedes 1.63 · 43 matches

BDF away — creates 1.93, concedes 2.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paradise attack 2.26 + BDF defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.39

BDF attack 1.93 + Paradise defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Paradise scores more
51%
level
20%
BDF scores more
29%

Paradise at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Paradise will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Paradise 0–4 BDF

BDF beat Paradise 4-0 in Premier League on August 16, 2023.

The match was played at Wildey Turf in Bridgetown.