Paradise 2–1 Bagatelle: Result & Stats

Paradise

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Bagatelle

4/12/2026

Premier League · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Paradise64%

×Draw19%

Bagatelle17%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ParadiseExpected goals in this matchBagatelle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

1.11

Paradise

2.33

Bagatelle

1.11

Paradise creates 110% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

2.92

creates per match

1.08

1.15

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Paradise

2.92

Bagatelle

1.08

allows per match

Paradise

1.15

Bagatelle

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paradise+0.00on par

Bagatelle+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paradise ↓

Bagatelle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Paradise or draw

83%

Paradise or Bagatelle

81%

Draw or Bagatelle

36%

Winning margin

Paradise wins by 2+

42%

Bagatelle wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Paradise 1+ goals

90%

Paradise 2+ goals

67%

Paradise 3+ goals

41%

Bagatelle 1+ goals

67%

Bagatelle 2+ goals

30%

Bagatelle 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Paradise (draw refunded)

79%

Bagatelle (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paradise at home — creates 2.92, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Bagatelle away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paradise attack 2.92 + Bagatelle defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.33

Bagatelle attack 1.08 + Paradise defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Paradise scores more

64%

level

19%

Bagatelle scores more

17%

Paradise at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Paradise will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff