Para Hills Knights 2–1 Adelaide United II

Para Hills Knights

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Adelaide United II

3/8/2024

South Australia NPL · Round 3The Paddocks

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Para Hills Knights32%

×Draw22%

Adelaide United II46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Para Hills KnightsExpected goals in this matchAdelaide United II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.94

Para Hills Knights

1.60

Adelaide United II

1.94

Adelaide United II creates 21% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 87 away

1.18

creates per match

1.70

2.18

allows per match

2.02

creates per match

Para Hills Knights

1.18

Adelaide United II

1.70

allows per match

Para Hills Knights

2.18

Adelaide United II

2.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Para Hills Knights+0.00on par

Adelaide United II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Para Hills Knights ↓

Adelaide United II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Para Hills Knights or draw

54%

Para Hills Knights or Adelaide United II

78%

Draw or Adelaide United II

68%

Winning margin

Para Hills Knights wins by 2+

15%

Adelaide United II wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Para Hills Knights 1+ goals

80%

Para Hills Knights 2+ goals

47%

Para Hills Knights 3+ goals

22%

Adelaide United II 1+ goals

86%

Adelaide United II 2+ goals

58%

Adelaide United II 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Para Hills Knights (draw refunded)

41%

Adelaide United II (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Para Hills Knights at home — creates 1.18, concedes 2.18 · 50 matches

Adelaide United II away — creates 1.70, concedes 2.02 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Para Hills Knights attack 1.18 + Adelaide United II defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.60

Adelaide United II attack 1.70 + Para Hills Knights defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Para Hills Knights scores more

32%

level

22%

Adelaide United II scores more

46%

Adelaide United II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Adelaide United II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff