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Papuk vs Podravina Ludbreg — League #215 2026

Papuk
Papuk
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Podravina Ludbreg
Podravina Ludbreg
4/9/2022League #215League #215 · North - 21Igralište NK Papuk Orahovica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Papuk53%
×Draw25%
Podravina Ludbreg22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Papuk
1.60
Podravina Ludbreg
0.95

Papuk creates 68% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 4 away

creates per match

Papuk
1.46
Podravina Ludbreg
0.75

allows per match

Papuk
1.15
Podravina Ludbreg
1.75

finishing

Papuk+0.00on par
Podravina Ludbreg+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Papuk ↓

Podravina Ludbreg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Papuk or draw
78%
Papuk or Podravina Ludbreg
75%
Draw or Podravina Ludbreg
47%

Winning margin

Papuk wins by 2+
28%
Podravina Ludbreg wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Papuk 1+ goals
80%
Papuk 2+ goals
47%
Papuk 3+ goals
22%
Podravina Ludbreg 1+ goals
61%
Podravina Ludbreg 2+ goals
25%
Podravina Ludbreg 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Papuk (draw refunded)
70%
Podravina Ludbreg (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Papuk at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Podravina Ludbreg away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Papuk attack 1.46 + Podravina Ludbreg defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.60

Podravina Ludbreg attack 0.75 + Papuk defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Papuk scores more
53%
level
25%
Podravina Ludbreg scores more
22%

Papuk at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Papuk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Papuk vs Podravina Ludbreg

Podravina Ludbreg beat Papuk 1-0 in League #215 on April 9, 2022.

The match was played at Igralište NK Papuk Orahovica in Orahovica.