Papua New Guinea W 1–0 Fiji W: Result & Stats

Papua New Guinea W

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Fiji W

3/8/2026

World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe · Qualification - Second Stage - 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Papua New Guinea W82%

×Draw16%

Fiji W2%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Papua New Guinea WExpected goals in this matchFiji W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

0.17

Papua New Guinea W

2.00

Fiji W

0.17

Papua New Guinea W creates 1076% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

2.00

creates per match

0.33

0.00

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Papua New Guinea W

2.00

Fiji W

0.33

allows per match

Papua New Guinea W

0.00

Fiji W

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Papua New Guinea W+0.00on par

Fiji W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No86
Yes14

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Papua New Guinea W ↓

Fiji W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–12%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–023%

1–14%

1–20%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–023%

2–14%

2–20%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–015%

3–13%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (23%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Papua New Guinea W or draw

98%

Papua New Guinea W or Fiji W

84%

Draw or Fiji W

18%

Winning margin

Papua New Guinea W wins by 2+

55%

Fiji W wins by 2+

0%

Team goals

Papua New Guinea W 1+ goals

86%

Papua New Guinea W 2+ goals

59%

Papua New Guinea W 3+ goals

32%

Fiji W 1+ goals

16%

Fiji W 2+ goals

1%

Fiji W 3+ goals

0%

Draw no bet

Papua New Guinea W (draw refunded)

97%

Fiji W (draw refunded)

3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

10%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Papua New Guinea W at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.00 · 4 matches

Fiji W away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Papua New Guinea W attack 2.00 + Fiji W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Fiji W attack 0.33 + Papua New Guinea W defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Papua New Guinea W scores more

82%

level

16%

Fiji W scores more

2%

Papua New Guinea W at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Papua New Guinea W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff