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Papua New Guinea W vs American Samoa W — World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe 2027

Papua New Guinea W
Papua New Guinea Wadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
American Samoa W
American Samoa W
K. Kalapai 45'
4/11/2026World Cup - Women - Qualification EuropeWorld Cup - Women - Qualification Europe · Semi-finalsWaikato Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Papua New Guinea W48%
×Draw31%
American Samoa W21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Papua New Guinea W
1.17
American Samoa W
0.67

Papua New Guinea W creates 75% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Papua New Guinea W
2.00
American Samoa W
1.33

allows per match

Papua New Guinea W
0.00
American Samoa W
0.33

finishing

Papua New Guinea W+0.00on par
American Samoa W+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Papua New Guinea W ↓

American Samoa W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Papua New Guinea W or draw
79%
Papua New Guinea W or American Samoa W
69%
Draw or American Samoa W
52%

Winning margin

Papua New Guinea W wins by 2+
21%
American Samoa W wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Papua New Guinea W 1+ goals
69%
Papua New Guinea W 2+ goals
33%
Papua New Guinea W 3+ goals
11%
American Samoa W 1+ goals
49%
American Samoa W 2+ goals
15%
American Samoa W 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Papua New Guinea W (draw refunded)
69%
American Samoa W (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Papua New Guinea W at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.00 · 4 matches

American Samoa W away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Papua New Guinea W attack 2.00 + American Samoa W defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

American Samoa W attack 1.33 + Papua New Guinea W defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Papua New Guinea W scores more
48%
level
31%
American Samoa W scores more
21%

Papua New Guinea W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Papua New Guinea W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
K. Kalapai

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Papua New Guinea W vs American Samoa W

Papua New Guinea W beat American Samoa W 1-0 in World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe on April 11, 2026.

Goals: K. Kalapai (45').

The match was played at Waikato Stadium in Hamilton.