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Pápai Perutz vs Hévíz — NB III - Southwest 2019

Pápai Perutz
Pápai Perutz
CANC
22:00
Hévíz
Hévíz
6/29/2020NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 20Perutz-stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Pápai Perutz48%
×Draw25%
Hévíz27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pápai Perutz
1.58
Hévíz
1.12

Pápai Perutz creates 41% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 8 away

creates per match

Pápai Perutz
1.28
Hévíz
1.00

allows per match

Pápai Perutz
1.24
Hévíz
1.88

finishing

Pápai Perutz+0.00on par
Hévíz+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pápai Perutz ↓

Hévíz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Pápai Perutz or draw
73%
Pápai Perutz or Hévíz
75%
Draw or Hévíz
52%

Winning margin

Pápai Perutz wins by 2+
25%
Hévíz wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Pápai Perutz 1+ goals
79%
Pápai Perutz 2+ goals
47%
Pápai Perutz 3+ goals
21%
Hévíz 1+ goals
67%
Hévíz 2+ goals
31%
Hévíz 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Pápai Perutz (draw refunded)
64%
Hévíz (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pápai Perutz at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.24 · 25 matches

Hévíz away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pápai Perutz attack 1.28 + Hévíz defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.58

Hévíz attack 1.00 + Pápai Perutz defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Pápai Perutz scores more
48%
level
25%
Hévíz scores more
27%

Pápai Perutz at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Pápai Perutz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Pápai Perutz host Hévíz

June 29, 2020: Pápai Perutz take on Hévíz in NB III - Southwest. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Pápai Perutz host Hévíz at Perutz-stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.