PAOK W 1–1 Maccabi Kiryat Gat W: Result & Stats

PAOK W

AET

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Maccabi Kiryat Gat W

E. Helmvall 111'

M. Koskeridou 47'

Pastilha 80' (pen)

9/4/2024

UEFA Champions League Women · 1st Round - Semi-finalsStadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

PAOK W50%

×Draw20%

Maccabi Kiryat Gat W31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PAOK WExpected goals in this matchMaccabi Kiryat Gat W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

1.85

PAOK W

2.38

Maccabi Kiryat Gat W

1.85

PAOK W creates 29% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

2.43

creates per match

2.00

1.71

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

PAOK W

2.43

Maccabi Kiryat Gat W

2.00

allows per match

PAOK W

1.71

Maccabi Kiryat Gat W

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PAOK W+0.00on par

Maccabi Kiryat Gat W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PAOK W ↓

Maccabi Kiryat Gat W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

PAOK W or draw

69%

PAOK W or Maccabi Kiryat Gat W

80%

Draw or Maccabi Kiryat Gat W

50%

Winning margin

PAOK W wins by 2+

30%

Maccabi Kiryat Gat W wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

PAOK W 1+ goals

91%

PAOK W 2+ goals

68%

PAOK W 3+ goals

42%

Maccabi Kiryat Gat W 1+ goals

84%

Maccabi Kiryat Gat W 2+ goals

55%

Maccabi Kiryat Gat W 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

PAOK W (draw refunded)

62%

Maccabi Kiryat Gat W (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PAOK W at home — creates 2.43, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Maccabi Kiryat Gat W away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PAOK W attack 2.43 + Maccabi Kiryat Gat W defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.38

Maccabi Kiryat Gat W attack 2.00 + PAOK W defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

PAOK W scores more

50%

level

20%

Maccabi Kiryat Gat W scores more

31%

PAOK W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "PAOK W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

M. Mitkou

46'

A. Papadopoulou← M. Kalyan

47'

M. Koskeridou

52'

M. Koskeridou

58'

M. Gkouni Papaioannou

62'

Y. Rubinstein← R. Revaha

62'

M. Ben← Z. Rot-Hazan

72'

E. Drakogiannaki← M. Koskeridou

76'

Ana Carol

80'

PastilhaPenalty

83'

T. Vardali← M. Estévez

86'

H. More← Raiza

111'

E. Helmvall

115'

F. Doiranli← L. Andrade

120+2'

E. Kiourexidou← E. Helmvall

PAOK

Maccabi

1

Rubin

33

Carol

15

▼

Raiza

4

Alkaisi

6

Zecharia

13

▼

Rot-Hazan

27

⚽

Pastilha

8

Sandrinha

7

▼

11

10

1

7

17

14

2

⚽

▼

Koskerido

5

Papaioann

6

▼

Estévez

71

▼

Andrade

9

⚽

▼

Helmvall

16

▼

Kalyan

19

Vlassopou

Manager: T. Theodoridis

46'▲A. Papadopoulou←▼M. Kalyan

72'▲E. Drakogiannaki←▼M. Koskeridou

83'▲T. Vardali←▼M. Estévez

115'▲F. Doiranli←▼L. Andrade

120+2'▲E. Kiourexidou←▼E. Helmvall

PAOK W substitutes

28Papadopoulou8Drakogiannaki10Vardali13Doiranli27Kiourexidou24Argyriou21Kalientzidou18Djurdjevic15Bourtouni

Manager: E. Sade

62'▲Y. Rubinstein←▼R. Revaha

62'▲M. Ben←▼Z. Rot-Hazan

86'▲H. More←▼Raiza

Maccabi Kiryat Gat W substitutes

12Rubinstein17Ben20More9Rara55Heiblum99de-Russo18Lev