PAOK W 6–0 Anenii Noi W: Result & Stats

PAOK W

FT

6 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Anenii Noi W

8/18/2021

UEFA Champions League Women · 1st Round - Semi-finalsGipedo Neas Efkarpias Makedonikou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

PAOK W91%

×Draw6%

Anenii Noi W3%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PAOK WExpected goals in this matchAnenii Noi W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4.55

0.85

PAOK W

4.55

Anenii Noi W

0.85

PAOK W creates 435% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

2.43

creates per match

0.00

1.71

allows per match

6.67

creates per match

PAOK W

2.43

Anenii Noi W

0.00

allows per match

PAOK W

1.71

Anenii Noi W

6.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PAOK W+0.00on par

Anenii Noi W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over89
Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PAOK W ↓

Anenii Noi W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–10%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–02%

1–12%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–15%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–010%

4–18%

4–24%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (10%) · grid covers 63% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

89%11%3.5

74%26%4.5

55%45%

Double chance

PAOK W or draw

97%

PAOK W or Anenii Noi W

94%

Draw or Anenii Noi W

9%

Winning margin

PAOK W wins by 2+

80%

Anenii Noi W wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

PAOK W 1+ goals

99%

PAOK W 2+ goals

93%

PAOK W 3+ goals

80%

Anenii Noi W 1+ goals

57%

Anenii Noi W 2+ goals

21%

Anenii Noi W 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

PAOK W (draw refunded)

97%

Anenii Noi W (draw refunded)

3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PAOK W at home — creates 2.43, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Anenii Noi W away — creates 0.00, concedes 6.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PAOK W attack 2.43 + Anenii Noi W defence 6.67 → ÷2 → 4.55

Anenii Noi W attack 0.00 + PAOK W defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 91%?"

PAOK W scores more

91%

level

6%

Anenii Noi W scores more

3%

PAOK W at 91% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 91% does not mean "PAOK W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff