PAOK 4–0 Heart Of Midlothian: Result & Stats

PAOK

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Heart Of Midlothian

Taison 71', 16'

G. Konstantelias 58'

Brandon Thomas 23'

8/31/2023

UEFA Europa Conference League · Play-offsStadio Toumbas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

PAOK65%

×Draw20%

Heart Of Midlothian15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PAOKExpected goals in this matchHeart Of Midlothian

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

0.88

PAOK

2.09

Heart Of Midlothian

0.88

PAOK creates 138% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 8 away

1.81

creates per match

0.88

allows per match

2.38

creates per match

PAOK

1.81

Heart Of Midlothian

0.88

allows per match

PAOK

0.88

Heart Of Midlothian

2.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PAOK+0.00on par

Heart Of Midlothian+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PAOK ↓

Heart Of Midlothian →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

PAOK or draw

85%

PAOK or Heart Of Midlothian

80%

Draw or Heart Of Midlothian

35%

Winning margin

PAOK wins by 2+

41%

Heart Of Midlothian wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

PAOK 1+ goals

88%

PAOK 2+ goals

62%

PAOK 3+ goals

34%

Heart Of Midlothian 1+ goals

59%

Heart Of Midlothian 2+ goals

22%

Heart Of Midlothian 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

PAOK (draw refunded)

81%

Heart Of Midlothian (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PAOK at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

Heart Of Midlothian away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PAOK attack 1.81 + Heart Of Midlothian defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.09

Heart Of Midlothian attack 0.88 + PAOK defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

PAOK scores more

65%

level

20%

Heart Of Midlothian scores more

15%

PAOK at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "PAOK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

18'

22'

23'

37'

45'

54'

Konstantinos Koulierakis

58'

G. Konstantelias

59'

K. Tagawa← L. Boyce

64'

T. Kędziora← Vieirinha

64'

M. Ozdoev← T. Tsingaras

66'

A. Lowry← L. Shankland

66'

A. Denholm← S. Kingsley

71'

Taison

75'

T. Murg← Taison

75'

S. Tzimas← Brandon Thomas

81'

G. Vrakas← A. Živković

82'

O. Offiah← N. Atkinson

82'

A. Halliday← C. Devlin

Shots

Statistics

PAOKHeart

Overview

13Total Shots7

2Corners4

16Fouls15

Shots

13Total Shots7

9On Target2

4Blocked1

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

16Fouls15

2Yellow Cards3