PAOK 2–1 FC Basel 1893: Result & Stats

PAOK

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

FC Basel 1893

7/24/2018

UEFA Champions League · 2nd Qualifying RoundToumba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

PAOK56%

×Draw20%

FC Basel 189324%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PAOKExpected goals in this matchFC Basel 1893

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

1.43

PAOK

2.25

FC Basel 1893

1.43

PAOK creates 57% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

2.00

creates per match

1.00

1.86

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

PAOK

2.00

FC Basel 1893

1.00

allows per match

PAOK

1.86

FC Basel 1893

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PAOK+0.00on par

FC Basel 1893+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PAOK ↓

FC Basel 1893 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

PAOK or draw

76%

PAOK or FC Basel 1893

80%

Draw or FC Basel 1893

44%

Winning margin

PAOK wins by 2+

34%

FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

PAOK 1+ goals

89%

PAOK 2+ goals

65%

PAOK 3+ goals

39%

FC Basel 1893 1+ goals

76%

FC Basel 1893 2+ goals

42%

FC Basel 1893 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

PAOK (draw refunded)

70%

FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PAOK at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

FC Basel 1893 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PAOK attack 2.00 + FC Basel 1893 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.25

FC Basel 1893 attack 1.00 + PAOK defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

PAOK scores more

56%

level

20%

FC Basel 1893 scores more

24%

PAOK at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "PAOK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff