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PAOK vs Eintracht Frankfurt — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

PAOK
PAOK
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Eintracht Frankfurt
Eintracht Frankfurt
10/5/2023UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Group Stage - 2Stadio Toumbas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

PAOK53%
×Draw25%
Eintracht Frankfurt22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PAOK
1.60
Eintracht Frankfurt
0.94

PAOK creates 70% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 5 away

creates per match

PAOK
1.81
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.00

allows per match

PAOK
0.88
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.40

finishing

PAOK+0.00on par
Eintracht Frankfurt+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PAOK ↓

Eintracht Frankfurt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

PAOK or draw
78%
PAOK or Eintracht Frankfurt
75%
Draw or Eintracht Frankfurt
47%

Winning margin

PAOK wins by 2+
28%
Eintracht Frankfurt wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

PAOK 1+ goals
80%
PAOK 2+ goals
47%
PAOK 3+ goals
22%
Eintracht Frankfurt 1+ goals
61%
Eintracht Frankfurt 2+ goals
24%
Eintracht Frankfurt 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

PAOK (draw refunded)
70%
Eintracht Frankfurt (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PAOK at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

Eintracht Frankfurt away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PAOK attack 1.81 + Eintracht Frankfurt defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.60

Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.00 + PAOK defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

PAOK scores more
53%
level
25%
Eintracht Frankfurt scores more
22%

PAOK at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "PAOK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa Conference League: PAOK 2–1 Eintracht Frankfurt

PAOK beat Eintracht Frankfurt 2-1 in UEFA Europa Conference League on October 5, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Toumbas in Thessaloníki.