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PAOK vs Dynamo Kyiv — UEFA Europa League 2026

PAOK
PAOK
Preview
17:45
Dynamo Kyiv
Dynamo Kyiv
7/30/2026UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · 2nd Qualifying RoundToumba Stadium
49%
PAOK
model favours
49%25%27%

When Dynamo Kyiv score first, they win 92% of the time

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

PAOK49%
×Draw25%
Dynamo Kyiv27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PAOK
1.62
Dynamo Kyiv
1.13

PAOK creates 43% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 12 away

creates per match

PAOK
1.57
Dynamo Kyiv
1.33

allows per match

PAOK
0.93
Dynamo Kyiv
1.67

finishing

PAOK+0.00on par
Dynamo Kyiv+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PAOK ↓

Dynamo Kyiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

PAOK or draw
73%
PAOK or Dynamo Kyiv
75%
Draw or Dynamo Kyiv
51%

Winning margin

PAOK wins by 2+
25%
Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

PAOK 1+ goals
80%
PAOK 2+ goals
48%
PAOK 3+ goals
22%
Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals
68%
Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals
31%
Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

PAOK (draw refunded)
65%
Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PAOK at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

Dynamo Kyiv away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PAOK attack 1.57 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.62

Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.33 + PAOK defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

PAOK scores more
49%
level
25%
Dynamo Kyiv scores more
27%

PAOK at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "PAOK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Dynamo Kyiv score first in only 26% of matches
  • 69% of Dynamo Kyiv’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • 40% of Dynamo Kyiv’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • 33% of PAOK’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Dynamo Kyiv matches are rarely goalless — only 3.9% end 0-0
  • Dynamo Kyiv outscore their xG (1.0 vs 0.5 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
PAOK
Balanced
Dynamo Kyiv
Balanced
49%Possession52%
83%Pass accuracy80%
11.4Shots10.4
1.75xGBiggest gap0.45
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
PAOKDynamo Kyiv

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
PAOK
WLWWW
Kyiv
LDWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

PAOK vs Dynamo Kyiv — Match Preview

PAOK face Dynamo Kyiv on July 30, 2026 in this UEFA Europa League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

PAOK host Dynamo Kyiv at Toumba Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.