Dynamo Kyiv vs PAOK — UEFA Europa League 2026
When Dynamo Kyiv score first, they win 100% of the time
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 13+ matches
Dynamo Kyiv38%
PAOK36%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 16 home / 13 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over51
- Under49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes55
- No45
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Dynamo Kyiv ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Dynamo Kyiv at home — creates 0.69, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches
PAOK away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Dynamo Kyiv attack 0.69 + PAOK defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.39
PAOK attack 1.31 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.34
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 38%?"
Dynamo Kyiv at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 38% does not mean "Dynamo Kyiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- Dynamo Kyiv score first in only 24% of matches
- 68% of Dynamo Kyiv’s matches go over 2.5 goals
- 39% of Dynamo Kyiv’s goals come after the 75th minute
- 36% of PAOK’s goals come after the 75th minute
- Dynamo Kyiv and PAOK have never met before
- Dynamo Kyiv matches are rarely goalless — only 4% end 0-0
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Style Matchup
Similar stylesHead-to-head
First-ever meeting
Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
No previous meetings found
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Dynamo Kyiv host PAOK on Thursday, 23 July 2026 at 17:00. The match is part of the UEFA Europa League 2026/2027 season.
Dynamo Kyiv vs PAOK — Match Preview
Dynamo Kyiv face PAOK on July 23, 2026 in this UEFA Europa League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.
Dynamo Kyiv host PAOK at Motor Lublin Arena.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.