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PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis — Super League 1 2018

PAOK
PAOK
Preview
16:00
Asteras Tripolis
Asteras Tripolis
10/31/2026Super League 1Super League 1 · Round 9Toumba Stadium
Big match
54%
PAOK
model favours
54%28%19%

PAOK have won 7 of the last 10 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
66%
under 2.5 goals
37%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

PAOK54%
×Draw28%
Asteras Tripolis19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PAOK
1.39
Asteras Tripolis
0.69

PAOK creates 101% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

PAOK
1.53
Asteras Tripolis
0.66

allows per match

PAOK
0.72
Asteras Tripolis
1.24

finishing

PAOK-0.03on par
Asteras Tripolis-0.09on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PAOK ↓

Asteras Tripolis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

PAOK or draw
81%
PAOK or Asteras Tripolis
72%
Draw or Asteras Tripolis
46%

Winning margin

PAOK wins by 2+
27%
Asteras Tripolis wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

PAOK 1+ goals
75%
PAOK 2+ goals
40%
PAOK 3+ goals
16%
Asteras Tripolis 1+ goals
50%
Asteras Tripolis 2+ goals
15%
Asteras Tripolis 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

PAOK (draw refunded)
74%
Asteras Tripolis (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PAOK at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.72 · 6 matches

Asteras Tripolis away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.24 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PAOK attack 1.53 + Asteras Tripolis defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.39

Asteras Tripolis attack 0.66 + PAOK defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

PAOK scores more
54%
level
28%
Asteras Tripolis scores more
19%

PAOK at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "PAOK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 33% of PAOK’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • PAOK outscore their xG (2.1 vs 1.4 expected)
  • Their last 10 meetings averaged 3.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
PAOK
Possession-dominant
Asteras Tripolis
Balanced
60%Possession46%
82%Pass accuracy77%
13.9ShotsBiggest gap9.6
1.45xG1.04
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
PAOKAsteras Tripolis

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

7
PAOK
3
Draws
0
Asteras Tripolis
Avg goals: 3.5BTTS: 60%
2–03–32–02–14–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
PAOK
WLWWW
Tripolis
WDWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis — Match Preview

PAOK face Asteras Tripolis on October 31, 2026 in this Super League 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

PAOK host Asteras Tripolis at Toumba Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.