PAOK 2–0 Asteras Tripolis: Result & Stats

PAOK

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Asteras Tripolis

3/1/2026

Super League 1 · Round 23Toumba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 131+ matches

PAOK59%

×Draw24%

Asteras Tripolis17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PAOKExpected goals in this matchAsteras Tripolis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

0.77

PAOK

1.68

Asteras Tripolis

0.77

PAOK creates 118% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 131 away

1.99

creates per match

0.84

0.71

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

PAOK

1.99

Asteras Tripolis

0.84

allows per match

PAOK

0.71

Asteras Tripolis

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PAOK+0.00on par

Asteras Tripolis+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PAOK ↓

Asteras Tripolis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

PAOK or draw

83%

PAOK or Asteras Tripolis

76%

Draw or Asteras Tripolis

41%

Winning margin

PAOK wins by 2+

33%

Asteras Tripolis wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

PAOK 1+ goals

81%

PAOK 2+ goals

50%

PAOK 3+ goals

24%

Asteras Tripolis 1+ goals

54%

Asteras Tripolis 2+ goals

18%

Asteras Tripolis 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

PAOK (draw refunded)

78%

Asteras Tripolis (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PAOK at home — creates 1.99, concedes 0.71 · 137 matches

Asteras Tripolis away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.36 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PAOK attack 1.99 + Asteras Tripolis defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.68

Asteras Tripolis attack 0.84 + PAOK defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

PAOK scores more

59%

level

24%

Asteras Tripolis scores more

17%

PAOK at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "PAOK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff