PAOK U19 0–1 Tottenham Hotspur U19: Result & Stats

PAOK U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Tottenham Hotspur U19

B. Lyons-Foster 12'

2/19/2019

UEFA Youth League · Play-offsStadio Toumbas (Thessaloníki)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

PAOK U1942%

×Draw24%

Tottenham Hotspur U1934%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PAOK U19Expected goals in this matchTottenham Hotspur U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.46

PAOK U19

1.63

Tottenham Hotspur U19

1.46

PAOK U19 creates 12% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 15 away

1.38

creates per match

1.53

1.38

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

PAOK U19

1.38

Tottenham Hotspur U19

1.53

allows per match

PAOK U19

1.38

Tottenham Hotspur U19

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PAOK U19+0.00on par

Tottenham Hotspur U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PAOK U19 ↓

Tottenham Hotspur U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

PAOK U19 or draw

66%

PAOK U19 or Tottenham Hotspur U19

76%

Draw or Tottenham Hotspur U19

58%

Winning margin

PAOK U19 wins by 2+

21%

Tottenham Hotspur U19 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

PAOK U19 1+ goals

80%

PAOK U19 2+ goals

48%

PAOK U19 3+ goals

22%

Tottenham Hotspur U19 1+ goals

77%

Tottenham Hotspur U19 2+ goals

43%

Tottenham Hotspur U19 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

PAOK U19 (draw refunded)

55%

Tottenham Hotspur U19 (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PAOK U19 at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Tottenham Hotspur U19 away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PAOK U19 attack 1.38 + Tottenham Hotspur U19 defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.63

Tottenham Hotspur U19 attack 1.53 + PAOK U19 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

PAOK U19 scores more

42%

level

24%

Tottenham Hotspur U19 scores more

34%

PAOK U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "PAOK U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

B. Lyons-Foster↳ H. White

47'

G. Tzovaras← G. Doumtsis

67'

P. Maghoma← M. Fagan-Walcott

76'

T. Pournaras← A. Gargalatzidis

81'

S. Maniotis← A. Salamouras

84'

A. Meletidis← Z. Chatzistravos

84'

D. Panidis← A. Gaitanidis

88'

R. Clarke← J. Lloyd-Bennett

90+2'

J. Okedina← T. Oakley-Boothe

PAOK

Tottenham

1

Austin

5

Eyoma

2

Hinds

6

⚽

Lyons-Fos

17

▼

Fagan-Wal

7

Roles

8

▼

Oakley-Bo

10

Shashoua

4

A

White

3

Cirkin

9

▼

1

3

6

4

2

5

8

▼

Salamoura

10

▼

Chatzistr

9

▼

Gargalatz

7

▼

Gaitanidi

11

▼

Doumtsis

Manager: T. Komsis

47'▲G. Tzovaras←▼G. Doumtsis

76'▲T. Pournaras←▼A. Gargalatzidis

81'▲S. Maniotis←▼A. Salamouras

84'▲A. Meletidis←▼Z. Chatzistravos

84'▲D. Panidis←▼A. Gaitanidis

PAOK U19 substitutes

18Tzovaras17Pournaras12Maniotis14Meletidis16Panidis15Talichmanidis13Tachatos

Manager: J. McDermott

67'▲P. Maghoma←▼M. Fagan-Walcott

88'▲R. Clarke←▼J. Lloyd-Bennett

90+2'▲J. Okedina←▼T. Oakley-Boothe

Tottenham Hotspur U19 substitutes

11Maghoma14Clarke15Okedina13Bie18Whittaker16Maurizio12Binks

Match Recap: PAOK U19 vs Tottenham Hotspur U19

Tottenham Hotspur U19 beat PAOK U19 1-0 in UEFA Youth League on February 19, 2019.

Goals: B. Lyons-Foster (12').

The match was played at Stadio Toumbas (Thessaloníki).

PAOK U19 vs Tottenham Hotspur U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: PAOK U19 vs Tottenham Hotspur U19