PAOK U19 2–1 Minsk U19: Result & Stats

PAOK U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Minsk U19

Z. Chatzistravos 46'

G. Doumtsis 44'

P. Gorbach 11'

11/7/2018

UEFA Youth League · 2nd RoundStadio Toumbas (Thessaloníki)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

PAOK U1949%

×Draw21%

Minsk U1930%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PAOK U19Expected goals in this matchMinsk U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

1.69

PAOK U19

2.19

Minsk U19

1.69

PAOK U19 creates 30% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

1.38

creates per match

2.00

1.38

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

PAOK U19

1.38

Minsk U19

2.00

allows per match

PAOK U19

1.38

Minsk U19

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PAOK U19+0.00on par

Minsk U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PAOK U19 ↓

Minsk U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

PAOK U19 or draw

70%

PAOK U19 or Minsk U19

79%

Draw or Minsk U19

51%

Winning margin

PAOK U19 wins by 2+

29%

Minsk U19 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

PAOK U19 1+ goals

89%

PAOK U19 2+ goals

64%

PAOK U19 3+ goals

37%

Minsk U19 1+ goals

82%

Minsk U19 2+ goals

50%

Minsk U19 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

PAOK U19 (draw refunded)

62%

Minsk U19 (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PAOK U19 at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Minsk U19 away — creates 2.00, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PAOK U19 attack 1.38 + Minsk U19 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.19

Minsk U19 attack 2.00 + PAOK U19 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

PAOK U19 scores more

49%

level

21%

Minsk U19 scores more

30%

PAOK U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "PAOK U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

P. Gorbach

44'

G. Doumtsis

46'

Z. Chatzistravos

61'

D. Stremok← D. Amelyanovich

63'

A. Gargalatzidis← D. Panidis

75'

D. Xifilinos← A. Gaitanidis

81'

C. Voutsas← Z. Chatzistravos

PAOK

Minsk

30

5

21

2

15

11

7

▼

Amelyanov

8

Seliazneu

14

Sazontchi

9

⚽

10

1

3

6

4

2

5

8

10

⚽

▼

Chatzistr

7

▼

Gaitanidi

11

⚽

Doumtsis

9

▼

Panidis

Manager: A. Papavasilleiou

63'▲A. Gargalatzidis←▼D. Panidis

75'▲D. Xifilinos←▼A. Gaitanidis

81'▲C. Voutsas←▼Z. Chatzistravos

PAOK U19 substitutes

18Gargalatzidis17Xifilinos16Voutsas13Kaloutsikidis14Maniotis15Talichmanidis12Theodorídis

Manager: V. Andryieuski

61'▲D. Stremok←▼D. Amelyanovich

Minsk U19 substitutes

18Stremok1Ginko4Shavel12Varabyou16Krapiunitski17Kandratovich24Melnik

Match Recap: PAOK U19 vs Minsk U19

PAOK U19 beat Minsk U19 2-1 in UEFA Youth League on November 7, 2018.

Goals: P. Gorbach (11'), G. Doumtsis (44'), Z. Chatzistravos (46').

The match was played at Stadio Toumbas (Thessaloníki).

PAOK U19 vs Minsk U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: PAOK U19 vs Minsk U19