PAOK II 3–0 Makedonikos Neapolis: Result & Stats

PAOK II

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Makedonikos Neapolis

T. Kalogiros 90'

K. Mustmaa 85'

G. Gitersos 13'

11/1/2025

League #494 · Round 8Kalamaria Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

PAOK II70%

×Draw17%

Makedonikos Neapolis13%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PAOK IIExpected goals in this matchMakedonikos Neapolis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.45

0.93

PAOK II

2.45

Makedonikos Neapolis

0.93

PAOK II creates 163% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

2.29

creates per match

1.00

0.86

allows per match

2.60

creates per match

PAOK II

2.29

Makedonikos Neapolis

1.00

allows per match

PAOK II

0.86

Makedonikos Neapolis

2.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PAOK II+0.00on par

Makedonikos Neapolis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PAOK II ↓

Makedonikos Neapolis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

PAOK II or draw

87%

PAOK II or Makedonikos Neapolis

83%

Draw or Makedonikos Neapolis

30%

Winning margin

PAOK II wins by 2+

48%

Makedonikos Neapolis wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

PAOK II 1+ goals

91%

PAOK II 2+ goals

70%

PAOK II 3+ goals

44%

Makedonikos Neapolis 1+ goals

61%

Makedonikos Neapolis 2+ goals

24%

Makedonikos Neapolis 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

PAOK II (draw refunded)

85%

Makedonikos Neapolis (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PAOK II at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Makedonikos Neapolis away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PAOK II attack 2.29 + Makedonikos Neapolis defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.45

Makedonikos Neapolis attack 1.00 + PAOK II defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

PAOK II scores more

70%

level

17%

Makedonikos Neapolis scores more

13%

PAOK II at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "PAOK II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

G. Gitersos

85'

K. Mustmaa

90'

T. Kalogiros

PAOK

Makedonikos

Manager: G. Kostikos

Manager: S. Papavasiliou