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Panthères vs Tanéka — Championnat National 2019

Panthères
Panthères
FT
0 – 1
Tanéka
Tanéka
4/4/2021Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 17Stade Municipal de Djougou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Panthères47%
×Draw33%
Tanéka20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Panthères
1.08
Tanéka
0.58

Panthères creates 86% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 13 away

creates per match

Panthères
1.07
Tanéka
0.38

allows per match

Panthères
0.79
Tanéka
1.08

finishing

Panthères+0.00on par
Tanéka+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panthères ↓

Tanéka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–111%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
49%51%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Panthères or draw
80%
Panthères or Tanéka
67%
Draw or Tanéka
53%

Winning margin

Panthères wins by 2+
20%
Tanéka wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Panthères 1+ goals
66%
Panthères 2+ goals
29%
Panthères 3+ goals
10%
Tanéka 1+ goals
44%
Tanéka 2+ goals
12%
Tanéka 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Panthères (draw refunded)
71%
Tanéka (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panthères at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.79 · 92 matches

Tanéka away — creates 0.38, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panthères attack 1.07 + Tanéka defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.08

Tanéka attack 0.38 + Panthères defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Panthères scores more
47%
level
33%
Tanéka scores more
20%

Panthères at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Panthères will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: Panthères 0–1 Tanéka

Tanéka beat Panthères 1-0 in Championnat National on April 4, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Djougou in Djougou.